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Life sciences · Preprint
arXiv · August 7, 2026
Posted before peer review. The findings may change or fail to hold.
This is an unrefereed preprint describing a novel GNN layer (GLIDE) designed to improve time-series forecasting when pairwise temporal correlations change over time. The authors introduce a metric called Temporal Correlation Volatility to quantify this instability and report empirical improvements of up to 45.6% average performance and 85.7% maximum gain on unspecified benchmarks, but the work has not undergone peer review and lacks detail on dataset scope and statistical validation.
Preprint. Intervention: Graph Layer for Inference in Dynamic Environments (GLIDE): a GNN layer with path-based message passing and static-dynamic propagation separation. Compared with: Popular GNN and Transformer models, and structure-agnostic baselines.
GLIDE improves average performance by up to 45.6% across static and dynamic settings Largest performance gain reaches 85.7% in some benchmarks Popular models including Transformers generalize poorly in high-TCV settings
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This is an unrefereed arXiv preprint proposing a novel GNN architecture with empirical validation on synthetic and real-world benchmarks, but lacking peer review and clinical or patient-level outcomes.
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Modeling multivariate time series by representing them as graphs, where individual series act as nodes and pairwise temporal corre- lations serve as edges, has gained significant traction. Recent advances in Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have demonstrated strong perfor- mance by assuming a static graph topology and aggregating information from neighboring series. In this work, we investigate the representa- tional power of GNNs for forecasting under both static and dynamic settings (i.e., when pairwise correlations evolve drastically over time) and identify critical limitations in current architectures. To formalize this, we first propose Temporal Correlation Volatility (TCV), a model- agnostic metric designed to quantify the distributional evolution of these latent structures. We establish a clear connection between TCV and performance degradation, demonstrating that many popular models, including Transformers, generalize poorly in high-TCV settings and are often outperformed by simple structure-agnostic baselines. To address these limitations, we propose Graph Layer for Inference in Dynamic En- vironments (GLIDE), a novel GNN layer enhanced by two theoretically grounded design mechanisms: (D1) Path-based Message Passing, which captures path-based neighborhoods and (D2) Static and Dynamic Propagation Separation, which identifies optimal dynamics via local static approximation. These components significantly improve learning under dynamic topology while preserving robustness in static scenarios. Ex- tensive experiments on synthetic and real-world benchmarks show that GLIDE improves average performance by up to 45.6% across static and dynamic settings, with the largest gain reaching 85.7%. The source code is available at https://github.com/ChenS676/GLIDE.
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