Physics-based prediction, uncertainty quantification and decision-making for IN718 crystallographic texture intensity across LPBF defocus regimes

Reliable prediction of crystallographic texture in laser powder bed fusion is critical for linking process conditions with anisotropic response and for qualification. However, black-box models may fail under shift and cannot distinguish weak data support from loss of physical validity. This study develops a two-stage physics-based model for <001> || BD (build direction) texture in Inconel 718. Stage 1 maps process variables to melting mode and melt pool geometry. Stage 2 predicts texture by combining an empirical physics model with a random-forest residual model. A k-nearest-neighbor weight attenuates residual corrections for poorly supported queries, while a study-specific areal beam-power-density criterion withholds predictions outside the adopted conduction envelope. Conformal intervals are evaluated on the retained physics-valid set, and SHAP and Sobol analyses assess residual sensitivity. Under a controlled leave-one-defocus-out evaluation, the physics anchor achieved R^2 = 0.778, against -0.001 for the black-box model and 0.750 for the gated hybrid. Under leave-one-group-out cross-validation, the gated hybrid reached R^2 = 0.592 against 0.538 for the black-box model. Retained-set coverage was 92.9% at a mean full width of 3.65 multiples of a uniform distribution (MUD) under grouped cross-validation and 100% at a width of 3.21 MUD under transfer to a withheld +80 mm defocus regime. An illustrative mapping produced a retained BD elastic-modulus span of 127-187 GPa. On nine conditions from a separately built sample set, the framework withheld three, attenuated three, and matched the measured ordering for the rest. Separating data applicability, physics validity, and predictive uncertainty into distinct decisions lets the framework transfer where an unconstrained model does not, and withhold predictions where no model class performs adequately.