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Life sciences · Preprint
arXiv · November 6, 2026
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Learning-path recommendation often depends on knowledge and prerequisite structures whose reliability is uncertain, while high accuracy in predicting the next resource does not necessarily establish reliable long-horizon path behaviour. This study develops a reliability-oriented prerequisite-aware framework that jointly examines immediate next-resource ranking, uncertain prerequisite structures, hard, soft and hybrid constraint semantics, graph robustness, and autoregressive path generation under course-level confirmatory evaluation and independent cross-dataset validation. Development used 3,187 MOOCCubeX courses, followed by a frozen confirmatory evaluation on 541 held-out courses and 37,747 transitions. The primary MOOCCubeX task is structural and course-prefix-conditioned rather than learner-personalised. Junyi provides independent structure-/hierarchy-aware external validation, uses hierarchy metadata rather than an explicit prerequisite graph and is not a zero-shot transfer setting. On the frozen MOOCCubeX evaluation, XGBoost pairwise was the strongest observed immediate ranker, with mean reciprocal rank (MRR) of 0.9048, whereas the proposed prerequisite-aware graph model achieved 0.7707. In the controlled graph-variant development ablation, the no-graph condition produced the strongest immediate ranking result, and immediate prediction showed strong dependence on permitted title/path-similarity information. Autoregressive evaluation exposed path properties not captured by one-step ranking. On Junyi, Markov achieved the strongest observed MRR of 0.4453, compared with 0.3954 for the proposed graph model, with metric-specific differences across ranking measures. Overall, immediate predictive accuracy, prerequisite-structure reliability, and long-horizon path quality should be treated as complementary rather than interchangeable evaluation dimensions in educational recommendation.