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Life sciences · Preprint
arXiv · September 3, 2026
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RATL is a proposed algorithmic plugin for multivariate time-series forecasting that retrieves historical forecast residuals and uses learned routing to correct base-model predictions. The work is a computational methods contribution without clinical validation, patient outcomes, or evidence of practice-relevant impact.
Preprint. Intervention: RATL: a residual-retrieval and feedback-correction method that freezes a base forecaster, constructs retrieval keys, retains historical forecast residuals as train-only memory, and at inference time retrieves residual trajectories from sim…. Compared with: Multiple strong forecasting baselines; iTransformer used as primary frozen base forecaster..
RATL improves frozen base forecasters in most experimental settings by retrieving residual trajectories from similar historical contexts Learned routing strengthens raw residual feedback and validation-based correction-strength selection limits residual over-injection RATL demonstrates transferability across different base-forecaster backbones on real-world benchmarks using iTransformer as primary frozen base forecaster
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This is a methodological computer science paper presenting a novel algorithmic approach (RATL) for time-series forecasting, without clinical or real-world validation data, comparative efficacy claims, or outcomes relevant to clinical practice.
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Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) complements parametric models with retrieved external evidence. The same idea is attractive for continuous-output regression, but directly reusing retrieved target values is often not robust when samples differ in output level, numerical scale, or local dynamics. Moreover, conventional forecasting pipelines generally use residuals for model optimization and error diagnosis, but do not retain individual historical residual examples as memory that can be accessed at inference time.For multivariate time-series forecasting, we propose RATL, a plug-in residual-retrieval and feedback-correction method. RATL freezes a base forecaster to construct retrieval keys and turns its historical forecast residuals into a train-only memory specific to that base model. At inference time, RATL retrieves residual trajectories from similar historical contexts subject to causal availability constraints, then uses a set-aware router operating over forecast blocks and variables to select and combine these trajectories. Experiments show that historical residuals matched to the current context contain reusable forecasting information and that RATL improves frozen base forecasters in most experimental settings. Ablations further show that learned routing strengthens raw residual feedback, while validation-based correction-strength selection limits residual over-injection.On real-world benchmarks, we use iTransformer as the primary frozen base forecaster, compare against multiple strong forecasting baselines, and test transferability across backbones. The results show that RATL can further improve base-forecaster performance in most settings.Overall, RATL shifts the retrieved object from historical target values to base-model-specific historical forecast errors, providing a plug-in, residual-memory-based paradigm for learned feedback correction in continuous-output forecasting.
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